Can this get any easier? Based on how Bleacher Report NFL analysts are currently faring against the spread this year, it can not get much harder.
Deciding every game, Brent Sobleski, Brad Gagnon and Gary Davenport had another run in Week 12, falling their record . Individually and as a team, here is the damage through 12 months (last week’s records in parentheses):
1. Gary Davenport: 92-78-6 (7-8)
2. Brent Sobleski: 81-89-6 (7-8)
3. Brad Gagnon: 78-92-6 (5-10)
Consensus picks: 83-87-6 (7-8)
Together with December looming, we requested longtime sports betting advisor Dave Tuley when there might be some light at the end of the tunnel for the betting public or when the sportsbooks will last to gain from bigger samples late in the season.
Tuley gave us some hope, but not enough to get carried away.
«There was a time less than a dozen years back where I had a lot of years in a row where I simply killed it the next half of this year and in December,» he said. «At the moment, I felt as though it was only the time of year when the good teams were overrated and the terrible teams were being underrated, and with parity exactly what it was, the underdogs were doing a whole lot better at the time.»
But Tuley notes that neither the books nor the bettors have encountered advantages that are consistently significant in Decembers. «As much as bettors wish to believe that we’re getting smarter the more we see these teams play,» he said,»clearly the oddsmakers are seeing the same things we are, and they’re adjusting and making it hard as well.»
However, he believes it is likely to pick out lines which were exaggerated by streaks and/or slumps. Specifically, he pointed in the 7.5-point spread in favor of the New Orleans Saints at a road matchup with the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night.
With that line, oddsmakers are suggesting the Saints would be favored by as many as 13 or 14 points if this game were at New Orleans, which does appear high considering the Cowboys are riding a three-game winning streak.
«That is [a manifestation of] the way the Saints have been playing,» Tuley said. «For the novels to balance their action, they must put it at the number.»
It’s something to keep in mind as we enter the last month of the 2018 regular season. It might not save your season for a bettor, but any advice helps if you’ve been after us all year.
Here’s what Gagnon, Davenport and Sobleski are considering heading to the first 16-game slate in more than two months.
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